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Scenario Analysis: Planning for Uncertain Futures

14 January 2010 · 1 Comment

As a follow-up to my presentation on scenario analysis in Shanghai last November, tonight I delivered a modified presentation to the Washington, DC chapter of the Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals.

Scenario analysis is a method for creating strategic foresight that overcomes the shortcomings of traditional forecasting methods. It helps strategists and decision makers create a shared vocabulary and baseline for quality strategic planning.

I’ve developed some surprising insights using this method. In this presentation I used rural broadband as a use case for the method. Even in a quick one-man scenario analysis (which breaks one of my cardinal rules for scenario analysis) I’ve created an intriguing picture of four possible futures for the rural broadband market. To that point, if you happen to have expertise in this topic, I would like to hear your opinion. Let’s keep the strategic conversation going!

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Snowing in Northern Virginia

5 December 2009 · Leave a Comment

I thought this morning scene was worthy of my first video from my new Droid.

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A Brief Moment of Internet Celebrity

5 December 2009 · Leave a Comment

I have to say that I was impressed with my own turn of a quick metaphor for pay walls for on-line newspapers.  Imagine how happy I was when Jeff Jarvis, the author of the fantastic book on innovation What Would Google Do? re-tweeted what I had to say.

Jeff’s original tweet:

Damned good question: Where does the paywall go? http://bit.ly/6pBL0R

And his re-tweet of my oh-so-witty response:

Well said RT @8of12: @jeffjarvis The paywall is not a load-bearing wall. It only supprts the burden of failure. You can put it anywhere.

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A Curated News Stream: My Google Reader Shared Items

26 November 2009 · Leave a Comment

Google Reader logo

One of the primary benefits the social media cognoscenti put forward for the value of Twitter is the human-curated news stream. On Twitter you follow people you trust, know or who interest you for some reason. As they come across news, blog posts, YouTube videos or other items on the web that interest them they will tweet about them. If these are people you have chosen to follow, it is highly likely that the items they share will be of interest to you as well based on some shared interest or personal connection that led you to follow these people.

My own experience is that the human curated news feed I capture from the people I follow on Twitter is extremely valuable. This is probably the most consistent value I have captured from Twitter. A number of interesting and highly relevant items have come to my attention solely because somebody in my Twitter stream chose to share those news item.

There is another Internet tool that I find extremely valuable: Google Reader. I use Google Reader to track hundreds (yes hundreds) of RSS feeds for blogs, publications, search alerts from Google, Bing and activity on RSS-enabled social networks (sadly Facebook is not among them). I scan through well over 1,000 news items on a daily basis in a series of relatively painless quick sessions of 15 – 20 minutes max. So in under 1 hour each day I am exposed to over 1,000 unique news items in the domains of general news, telecommunications, strategy, competitive intelligence… the list goes on.

Several months ago the people at Google Reader added a “Share” function that allows people to share items of interest with their Google Reader social network. Your Google social network generally defaults to your fellow Gmail users you have added to your Google Chat contact list. Recently the Google Reader team have added tools that enable you to find fellow Google Reader users with shared interests and subscribe to their shared items.

I am a promiscuous sharer on Google Reader. How I structure my marathon review sessions to get through the large volume of news items that are in my Google Reader at any one time is that if there is an item that I find interesting I actually share it so that I will come back to it when I have more time to read it. My thinking is that if I find the item of interest it’s likely that the few dozen people following my shared items on Google Reader might also find it interesting.

My default cognitive model is to share (my own version of “publish, then filter”). If you are interested in the latest news about strategy, competitive intelligence, marketing, social media and knowledge management this is a well-curated stream of information. Not all of it may be of deep interest to you, but the odds are high that a large proportion of the material will be worth at least a momentary glance. I’ve featured the most recent shared items on the right-hand side of this blog page for some time now below my Twitter stream and above my Delicious bookmarks.

If you are a person that needs to cast a wide information net I highly recommend you consider creating your own Google Reader account.  You don’t need to be quite the addict that I am, though I am confident you’ll find value from Google Reader.  If you share an interest in the topics that I’ve mentioned in this blog entry (you’re reading this blog, so that is probably a “Yes”) you should follow me on Google Reader (I also want to follow you back). If you are using another RSS reader you can subscribe to the RSS feed of my shared items.  If you are kicking it old school and still not ready to step up to RSS you can see the web page of my shared items from Google Reader.

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Scenario Analysis of The Telecommunications Industry

22 November 2009 · 1 Comment

Recently I had the opportunity to do a series of presentations on scenario analysis at the China Institute of Competitive Intelligence 5th annual conference in Shanghai.  I used 3G/4G wireless as a use case for scenario analysis.  The high-level scenario analysis the scenarios I’ve developed illustrate four very different possible futures for the telecommunications industry.

The true benefit of scenario analysis is that it helps decision-makers create strategies with a view of the multiple ways the future may unfold.  The best and most important outcome of a full scenario analyzes is that it enables executives to learn about the trends in their industry, recognize the need to adapt to fundamental change, prepare for the unexpected and continue a strategic conversation (to steal some lines from Craig Fleisher and Babette Bensoussan).

With scenario analysis strategists get a view of multiple possible futures.  They can make several decisions without knowing with certainty which scenario (if any) truly describes the future.  Strategists will be able to identify strategies and tactics that are common to all of the possible futures described by the analysis.  They can determine whether or not there are any steps the company can take to make it more likely that an ideal end state will come to pass, such as lobbying regulators or lawmakers to enact specific policies.  CI professionals can use the scenario analysis to identify milestones as the basis of early warning systems so that the firm can be forewarned of which scenario is likely to be as time passes.

As I undertook this effort I  came to see the true importance of having a diverse team with a variety of perspectives and skills in conducting a full scenario analysis.  For example, it would have been great to hear from at least one network engineer about the challenges of transitioning from 3G to 4G and interoperability among the various wireless standards that are deployed in the market.   CI professionals interested in conducting their own scenario analysis should take the need for diversity very seriously.

A true scenario analysis will be more bound than what you see here.  Good scenario analysis bounds the timeframe, which I have left very vague but estimate as the next 3 – 5 years for these scenarios.  Some scenario analysis can look as far as 10 years into the future.  Also, because the telecommunications industry is a mix of global and local markets as well as regulations a true scenario analysis would likely limit itself to a specific market (telecom equipment or services) or geography (the US, Europe or China).  This analysis is not bound on these dimensions and as a consequence is more “squishy” than a true scenario analysis.

The Four Futures of the Telecommunications Industry

As I conducted the analysis I concluded that these are the  two most important uncertainties regarding the future of the telecommunications industry:
  1. Whether or not telecommunications systems will be largely open (as they are today) or closed (the extreme case being the Bell system in the US prior to divestiture).
  2. The cost of commodities is going to have substantial impact on global economies.  The slower growth curve in the US and Europe versus the growth of China and India is a given.  However, all economies will face the potential for major shocks if commodity prices vary wildly.

With these two uncertainties as my axis that enabled me to create a 2 x 2 matrix of four possible futures:
  1. Telcos Set the Pace: A world of stable commodity prices with closed and controlled telecommunications and IT infrastructure.  Telecom service providers will seek to maximize the Return on Capital (ROC) by sweating existing assets.  Telcos will be slow to roll out 4G infrastructure and prefer to limit new applications to limit the pressure on existing networks.
  2. Google World: A world of stable commodity prices with open telecommunications ecosystems.  New devices and applications excite end users and create new value, driving adoption and requiring telecommunications service providers to upgrade their networks quickly to keep up with demand.  Revenues for telecoms is high here, though ROC is much lower for telcos.  Equipment manufacturers perform very well in this scenario.
  3. Innovation Stagnation: A world of economic volatility and with closed telecommunications systems.  For Americans who remember the telecom industry of the 1970s this is a modern equivalent of that.  There will be no move to 4G during this scenario.  We’ll see a greater consolidation among equipment manufacturers, and could even see telecom carriers purchase equipment makers in a reverse vertical integration play.
  4. Reverse Innovation World: A world of economic volatility but open ecosystems.  Every customer and provider in the IT and telecoms industry is trying to do what they are doing today with lower cost.  Equipment manufacturers from China such as Huawei and ZTE are the big winners in this scenario.  Chinese and Indian business models that function with lower revenue and less overhead are enthusiastically adopted in the US and Europe.

I’ll no doubt be doing more with this analysis and writing more about it in the future.  If you have any thoughts reactions or questions as you read this I would love to hear them.  I will be presenting an updated version that focuses more on the process and value of scenario analysis at the December meeting of the Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals (SCIP) DC chapter.  You can see more details about that event and register here.

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My Pecha Kucha from the October 22 Intelligence Collaborative Event

29 October 2009 · Leave a Comment

You’ve seen the preview, now see the actual live and in-person Intelligence Collaborative Call to Action from the inaugural event we held in Washington, DC on October 22.  Special thanks to Eric Garland for working his digital video magic and making this video possible.

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Intelligence Collaborative Inaugural Event 10/22 in Washington, DC

21 October 2009 · Leave a Comment

If you’re going to be in Washington, DC on the evening of Thursday, October 22 please join us for the inaugural event of the Intelligence Collaborative.  The title and the topic are “Social Media and Next Generation Intelligence.”  You can read more about the event and register here.

The Intelligence Collaborative is a nascent professional collaboration and networking group for intelligence professionals and those in related fields.  We are purposefully casting a very wide net in this group’s mission.  Our target audience encompasses professionals engaged or interested in commercial intelligence, government intelligence, military intelligence, investigative journalism, strategists of all flavors, fraud investigators and librarians.  I’m sure I’m leaving some people out in that summary, and if you feel remotely interested feel free to check things out.  The event is free, and you can read more about the concept originally launched by my friend Eric Garland on the Competitive Intelligence Community on Ning.  You can also take a view of Eric’s video introduction to the Intelligence Collaborative here:

There will be a brief set of presentations at tomorrow’s event.  One of the reasons these events will be brief is because we will be using the Pecha Kucha format: 20 slides that auto-advance every 20 seconds.  This has in itself been a great learning experience for me, because 20 seconds is NOT a lot of time.  You’ve got to be concise, get your points across very quickly and think very carefully about how you will pull everything together.  And you’ve got to practice like nobody’s business.  You can see a preview of my presentation here:

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How to Ask for Recommendations on LinkedIn

4 October 2009 · 2 Comments

I blame it on the recession.

In the past six months I’ve noticed an uptick in the number of requests from LinkedIn connections for Recommendations.  The more requests I’ve received the clearer it has become to me that there is a right way to go about asking for recommendations.  The key, as with so many other things in life, is to think first about what your final goal or intention is (thank you Steven Covey) and work backwards from there.

Without calling out any one person, these requests tend to reflect some of the same half-hearted and haphazard efforts that many people apply to job searches:

  • Mis-directed requests for support to all of the colleagues from a former job or  or even (heaven help us) all of their LinkedIn connections
  • Open-ended requests for recommendation with no clear guidance on what basis I should write an endorsement or what attributes I should highlight
  • Making it all about you with a lack of concern or interest in what you can do for me or what is going on in my life.

Let me address each one of these in turn.  I hope that those who read this post will keep these issues in mind when they consider asking their LinkedIn network for recommendations.

What is your end goal of your LinkedIn campaign?

The reasons for having a LinkedIn profile fall into two general categories.  There are those consultants, independent contractors and even corporate practitioners that maintain a presence to establish their credentials in a given industry or practice.  The other purpose is to find new employment opportunities.  These are not mutually exclusive.  Where do you fall on this spectrum?  From that, what is the target audience for your LinkedIn program– who are the individuals or types of people you want to sit up and pay attention should they come across your profile?  What are their needs and hot-button issues likely to be?  What is the specific call to action you are trying to construct?

Your target audience is likely to find you through a search of some kind, so you will want to make sure relevant keywords are included in your LinkedIn profile.  The Summary and the Interests section of your profile in particular are your opportunity to apply some basic search engine marketing.  What are the keywords relevant to the field in which you want to establish your expertise with your target audience?  Use synonyms and alternative terminologies that reflect subsegments of your target audience.

For example, my Interests section of my LinkedIn profile basically touches on three themes from a variety of directions and terminology to make sure I show up on any relevant search regardless of the specific keywords someone in my target audience chooses:

Competitive Intelligence, Market Intelligence, Marketing Strategy, Competitive Analysis, Strategic Intelligence, Secondary Research, Internet Exploitation, Primary Research, Intelligence Networks, Trade Show Intelligence, Employee Intelligence, Project Management, Personnel Management, Presentation, Writing, Delivering Actionable Intelligence

Be Specific and Guide Your Recommender on Writing a Good Recommendation

Your recommendations are an opportunity for you to communicate your professional reputation with those who read your profile.  Reviewers are going to make conclusions about you based on who is recommending you, what they are saying about you and how well they have written their recommendations of you.

When asking for an endorsement, choose people with whom you have worked on something specific and measurable.  Ask them to highlight the results, and align these recommendations with the questions you are likely to be asked in a job interview about past experience, and the SOAR (Situation Obstacle Action Result) narratives you will share during an interview.

What personal and professional skills and attributes do you want to convey to someone looking at your LinkedIn profile?  Some in social media reject the notion of the “personal brand” because brands are artificial marketing constructs.  Without getting too philosophical there is clearly a constructed component of a good LinkedIn profile.

Your target audience is looking for specific skills and has an idea of what the attributes, attitudes and behaviors are for an ideal consultant or job candidate.  Anticipate what these are and make a realistic assessment of which of those attributes you have clearly demonstrated.  A clearly demonstrated differentiating capability that delivers value for your target audience or customer is a strength,

Ask your recommenders to specifically highlight those strengths in their recommendation.  When you make your request for a recommendation remind your colleague of the specific instances when you demonstrated these strengths when you worked together on the project in question.  Ask your recommender to highlight these details.

Be Considerate of your Recommender

The best networkers give before and more than they get.  I am not a fan of the quid pro quo endorsement.  These are very transparent and damage both parties’ reputation if all of your recommendations are reciprocated like-for-like.  However, establish a track record of generosity by taking part in LinkedIn group discussions, answering questions and reaching out to your prospective recommenders through other venues well in advance of asking for a Recommendation.

It’s likely that your colleagues are busy and have their own challenges and issues themselves going on in their lives.  When you make a request of a LinkedIn connection for a recommendation you should expect that they will need some time to get around to this.  The easier you can make it for them (without writing it FOR them) the better.  Be patient and don’t expect them to get to it right away.

I am pretty promiscuous with my LinkedIn connections.  I don’t accept all connection invites, but I do have a pretty low bar for connections.  There is a considerable proportion of my LinkedIn connections I have never met in person and with whom I have never worked.  I am in no position whatsoever to recommend these people.  A connection, to me, is a means to communicate and share.  You should know that most people aren’t going to recommend somebody with whom they have not worked closely.  Their own reputation is at stake.

In Conclusion

  1. Think about who can best write the recommendation to meet your ultimate goal for being on LinkedIn.
  2. Make it easy for them to write the Recommendation that is going to highlight your strength and emphasize results that will resonate with your target audience.
  3. As in all networking be a giver and maintain a positive balance in your social checking account.

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Johns Hopkins Competitive Analysis Slides

17 September 2009 · 1 Comment

I had a great time delivering my guest lecture to the Competitive Intelligence class at Johns Hopkins University tonight.  My slides on my favorite competitive analysis frameworks are here.

Download the PPT file here.

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Update on SCIP Board of Directors Situation

14 September 2009 · Leave a Comment

Since I had posted previously that I was considering running for the SCIP Board of Directors I should provide a short update that I’ve decided not to stand for election. As you’ve no doubt noticed my writing for the blog has slowed significantly as of late, and that’s a consequence of my workload and other activities. With everything that’s going on professionally I don’t believe I have the cycles needed to give a SCIP Board position the attention the role and the organization deserves.

On the plus side… I am podcasting again. Hopefully I will be able to keep the new episodes of the Competitive Intelligence Podcast coming. In addition to my recent interview with Aric Johnson I have another interview recorded with a CI thought leader waiting to be edited and published.

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