Tag Archives: competitive intelligence

Scenario Analysis: Planning for Uncertain Futures

As a follow-up to my presentation on scenario analysis in Shanghai last November, tonight I delivered a modified presentation to the Washington, DC chapter of the Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals.

Scenario analysis is a method for creating strategic foresight that overcomes the shortcomings of traditional forecasting methods. It helps strategists and decision makers create a shared vocabulary and baseline for quality strategic planning.

I’ve developed some surprising insights using this method. In this presentation I used rural broadband as a use case for the method. Even in a quick one-man scenario analysis (which breaks one of my cardinal rules for scenario analysis) I’ve created an intriguing picture of four possible futures for the rural broadband market. To that point, if you happen to have expertise in this topic, I would like to hear your opinion. Let’s keep the strategic conversation going!

Scenario Analysis of The Telecommunications Industry

Recently I had the opportunity to do a series of presentations on scenario analysis at the China Institute of Competitive Intelligence 5th annual conference in Shanghai.  I used 3G/4G wireless as a use case for scenario analysis.  The high-level scenario analysis the scenarios I’ve developed illustrate four very different possible futures for the telecommunications industry.

The true benefit of scenario analysis is that it helps decision-makers create strategies with a view of the multiple ways the future may unfold.  The best and most important outcome of a full scenario analyzes is that it enables executives to learn about the trends in their industry, recognize the need to adapt to fundamental change, prepare for the unexpected and continue a strategic conversation (to steal some lines from Craig Fleisher and Babette Bensoussan).

With scenario analysis strategists get a view of multiple possible futures.  They can make several decisions without knowing with certainty which scenario (if any) truly describes the future.  Strategists will be able to identify strategies and tactics that are common to all of the possible futures described by the analysis.  They can determine whether or not there are any steps the company can take to make it more likely that an ideal end state will come to pass, such as lobbying regulators or lawmakers to enact specific policies.  CI professionals can use the scenario analysis to identify milestones as the basis of early warning systems so that the firm can be forewarned of which scenario is likely to be as time passes.

As I undertook this effort I  came to see the true importance of having a diverse team with a variety of perspectives and skills in conducting a full scenario analysis.  For example, it would have been great to hear from at least one network engineer about the challenges of transitioning from 3G to 4G and interoperability among the various wireless standards that are deployed in the market.   CI professionals interested in conducting their own scenario analysis should take the need for diversity very seriously.

A true scenario analysis will be more bound than what you see here.  Good scenario analysis bounds the timeframe, which I have left very vague but estimate as the next 3 – 5 years for these scenarios.  Some scenario analysis can look as far as 10 years into the future.  Also, because the telecommunications industry is a mix of global and local markets as well as regulations a true scenario analysis would likely limit itself to a specific market (telecom equipment or services) or geography (the US, Europe or China).  This analysis is not bound on these dimensions and as a consequence is more “squishy” than a true scenario analysis.

The Four Futures of the Telecommunications Industry

As I conducted the analysis I concluded that these are the  two most important uncertainties regarding the future of the telecommunications industry:
  1. Whether or not telecommunications systems will be largely open (as they are today) or closed (the extreme case being the Bell system in the US prior to divestiture).
  2. The cost of commodities is going to have substantial impact on global economies.  The slower growth curve in the US and Europe versus the growth of China and India is a given.  However, all economies will face the potential for major shocks if commodity prices vary wildly.

With these two uncertainties as my axis that enabled me to create a 2 x 2 matrix of four possible futures:
  1. Telcos Set the Pace: A world of stable commodity prices with closed and controlled telecommunications and IT infrastructure.  Telecom service providers will seek to maximize the Return on Capital (ROC) by sweating existing assets.  Telcos will be slow to roll out 4G infrastructure and prefer to limit new applications to limit the pressure on existing networks.
  2. Google World: A world of stable commodity prices with open telecommunications ecosystems.  New devices and applications excite end users and create new value, driving adoption and requiring telecommunications service providers to upgrade their networks quickly to keep up with demand.  Revenues for telecoms is high here, though ROC is much lower for telcos.  Equipment manufacturers perform very well in this scenario.
  3. Innovation Stagnation: A world of economic volatility and with closed telecommunications systems.  For Americans who remember the telecom industry of the 1970s this is a modern equivalent of that.  There will be no move to 4G during this scenario.  We’ll see a greater consolidation among equipment manufacturers, and could even see telecom carriers purchase equipment makers in a reverse vertical integration play.
  4. Reverse Innovation World: A world of economic volatility but open ecosystems.  Every customer and provider in the IT and telecoms industry is trying to do what they are doing today with lower cost.  Equipment manufacturers from China such as Huawei and ZTE are the big winners in this scenario.  Chinese and Indian business models that function with lower revenue and less overhead are enthusiastically adopted in the US and Europe.

I’ll no doubt be doing more with this analysis and writing more about it in the future.  If you have any thoughts reactions or questions as you read this I would love to hear them.  I will be presenting an updated version that focuses more on the process and value of scenario analysis at the December meeting of the Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals (SCIP) DC chapter.  You can see more details about that event and register here.

Intelligence Collaborative Inaugural Event 10/22 in Washington, DC

If you’re going to be in Washington, DC on the evening of Thursday, October 22 please join us for the inaugural event of the Intelligence Collaborative.  The title and the topic are “Social Media and Next Generation Intelligence.”  You can read more about the event and register here.

The Intelligence Collaborative is a nascent professional collaboration and networking group for intelligence professionals and those in related fields.  We are purposefully casting a very wide net in this group’s mission.  Our target audience encompasses professionals engaged or interested in commercial intelligence, government intelligence, military intelligence, investigative journalism, strategists of all flavors, fraud investigators and librarians.  I’m sure I’m leaving some people out in that summary, and if you feel remotely interested feel free to check things out.  The event is free, and you can read more about the concept originally launched by my friend Eric Garland on the Competitive Intelligence Community on Ning.  You can also take a view of Eric’s video introduction to the Intelligence Collaborative here:

There will be a brief set of presentations at tomorrow’s event.  One of the reasons these events will be brief is because we will be using the Pecha Kucha format: 20 slides that auto-advance every 20 seconds.  This has in itself been a great learning experience for me, because 20 seconds is NOT a lot of time.  You’ve got to be concise, get your points across very quickly and think very carefully about how you will pull everything together.  And you’ve got to practice like nobody’s business.  You can see a preview of my presentation here:

Johns Hopkins Competitive Analysis Slides

I had a great time delivering my guest lecture to the Competitive Intelligence class at Johns Hopkins University tonight.  My slides on my favorite competitive analysis frameworks are here.

Download the PPT file here.

Classic Dunkin Donuts Commercial = CI in the Popular Imagination

As a child growing up in the 1980s I remember the classic Dunkin Donuts commercials with Frank the Baker (“Time to make the doughnuts.”).  This was one of those memorable commercials, and seems somewhat relevant to some popular misconceptions about what competitive intelligence is.

Moving CI from Information-Driven Inquiry to Decision-Support Consultancy

This weekend I’ve been working feverishly to recreate my presentation on “Using the Internet to Research Private Companies” for my upcoming SCIP webinar.  I’ve been applying Andrew Abela’s Extreme Presentation method that results in a more coherent “story” and also results in much more attractive and meaningful graphic slides.  I used this approach for my presentation at the Frost & Sullivan Competitive Intelligence MindXChange in January and was very happy with the results.  One of my goals for this presentation is that I want to encourage researchers to move from thinking about requests for specific information and focusing more on the motivating decision that they are trying to inform.  

I have been looking at this concept recently based on some observations I’ve been pulling together about some cognitive biases that occur when competitive intelligence tasking is focused strictly on finding specific information about the market or a competitor versus inquiries and support based on decision support.  While I’m not going to go into this topic in detail in the webinar, I did take some time to capture some quick thoughts on the cognitive biases that I have observed behind information-driven inquiry from CI customers:

  • Over-estimate the level of specificity required
  • Over-estimate the level of precision required/possible
  • Over-value quantitative information
  • Over-estimate the need for “up-to-the-minute” facts over historical trends
  • Value the tactical and devalue strategic
  • Under-estmate ethical considerations, up to and including advocating for industrial espionage under-estimate cost
  • Under-estimate timeframe required for information collection
  • Emphasize adherence to requirements over results
  • Emphasize information over analysis, reject external opinion
  • Over-reliance on individual pieces of data or information, often from unqualified or unverified sources
  • Significant confirmation bias– seek specific information to prove intuitive conclusions or justify decisions already made
  • Over-emphasize the need to move quickly over confirmation of accuracy of information or quality of analysis

Admittedly there is a lot of redundancy and overlap in that list.  As I refine the concept for a new project and really get down to specific cases and examples I am sure the list will be both narrowed and focused.  In a nutshell I relate these cognitive biases back to the tyranny of the urgent over the important.  

Good CI managers and practitioners are going to be challenged always to push back against the information-driven approach to client inquiry.  The sometimes subjective nature of “good” collection and “quality” analysis actually gives me a degree of sympathy for the client who expresses his or her requests for support in terms of access to information.  It is much easier to answer the question “Did I get what I requested?” if I express my request in terms of tangible information.  The decisions that need to be made are often very sensitive in nature, and the desire to compartmentalize those considerations is certainly justifiable.  All of these very understandable preferences lead us to a very sub-optimal destination where practitioner time and effort is wasted to deliver something that doesn’t really address the client’s need.

New CI practices and employees effectively have to earn the permission to be decision support consultants by going above and beyond traditional information-driven requests.  They must also somehow do this without falling into the trap of becoming so good at meeting information-driven expectations that they become typecast as purveyors of information as opposed to the true decision support role that CI really is intended to be.  Key to doing this is to anticipate the decision requirement that drives the information request and do “well enough” on the information but go above and beyond in providing it in a firm form that also provides some quick-win analysis.

There’s a lot more here, and probably more than I can go into in one blog entry.  I’m particularly interested in seeing if any of my fellow CI practitioners and vendors have any thoughts, experiences or cases along these lines of moving a client from information-driven requests to an inquiry framework based on decision support.

Upcoming Competitive Intelligence Article: Web 2.0 Changes Everything

I have been ignoring the blog the past few weeks largely to focus on a couple of efforts I am working on for SCIP.  In the interim I hope that the active sharing of news items I find on Google Reader and Twitter that run along the sidebar of this blog.  I am a religious user of both platforms and they really do serve a niche to give me a means to share items of interest between blog posts or when I don’t have enough time, inclination or insight to justify a full blog entry.

One of the projects that I’ve been working on is an article on Web 2.0 and CI that I needed to get out the door and kept me up until 2 AM Thursday night. The article is probably going to be in the March/April issue of Competitive Intelligence magazine.  Some of the main points that I try to convey in this article are the basics of Web 2.0 and the consequences of network effects, transparency and open platforms on established business models.

I also try to make the point in this article that Web 2.0 platforms increase the need and importance of active, real-time reputation monitoring.  This is a difficult tight-rope to walk, because one of the dynamics I am trying to convey related to corporate policies related to employee use of Web 2.0 platforms (both inside and outside the enterprise) is that heavy-handed strategies won’t work.  My challenge is creating an appropriate sense of urgency around active reputation monitoring and management with the knee-jerk reflex to “lock it down” that one observes in command-and-control oriented corporate structures.  

The downside to the command and control approach is that it comes with a hard-to-measure cost in employee efficiency, satisfaction and retention.  Ham-handed anti-web 2.0 policies are signals to the market (and employment is still a market even if it’s more of a buyer’s market these days) of the value in which the corporation holds individual employees.  The best and the brightest want to go where they are going to be recognized as individuals, allowed to innovate, allowed to pursue individual initiative and rewarded for their efforts.  Heavy-fisted policies about participation and social networks tell these stellar employees that this will not happen here.  It also sends a message to market watchers that a corporate structure lacks the ability to take advantage of bottom-up innovation.  When the recovery does happen I would like to think investors will see these qualities as indicators of staying power and the ability of a firm to generate growth and higher returns on investments.

Your Competitor Doesn’t Always Look Like You

One of my Saturday morning rituals is to sync the iPod with the podcasts that have been captured over night, and the first podcast I listen to each Saturday morning is WNYC‘s On the Media.

Today I heard a story on a group of newspaper executives that are banding together to make the case that the newspaper industry is not suffering as much as some of us might believe from the coverage of this industry in the media in something called the Newspaper Project.  Commentary by Philadelphia Inquirer publisher Brian Tierne makes a strong case for the value and potential of historically-printed journalism to make the transition to digital platforms.  The real take-away for me as a CI guy was Tierney sharing this anecdote (not a direct quote from a transcript but written from my memory):

Somebody asked Lorne Michaels recently what was the competition to “Saturday Night Live” and he said “Guitar Hero.”

This highlights a case I try to make very forcefully when I speak to business people and CI professionals, with varying degree of success.  That fundamental truth is that your competition is any entity that can deliver the same fundamental value to the customer that you do.  

On the surface this sounds obvious.  Most executives and even CI professionals I speak to still operate under the assumption that their competitors look like themselves.  If we’re a capital-intensive, massively scaled, publicly-traded company then all of our competitors will also be capital-intensive, massively-scaled, publicly-traded companies.  They’ll deliver value using the same technology and processes we use to deliver value.  They will extract revenue from their customers the same way we extract value.  The only questions for competitive strategy are “How do we compare in terms of technology features to their offering?” and “What is our price position?”

I have seen this mindset up-close.  Several years ago I told a product manager at a capital-intensive, massively-scaled, publicly traded company that he needed to watch out for disruption to his pricing power from a rising band of capital-light (software-based), exponentially-scalable (peer-to-peer network effect and viral marketing), venture-funded start-up.  ”Hell, we don’t need to worry about them,” he drawled.  ”We deliver an enterprise-grade service with high levels of availability and quality they’ll never be able to meet.”  That competitor now delivers a much higher-quality product that is feature-rich and benefits from considerable network effects that have enabled its platform to achieve massive scale.  Did I mention it’s much, much cheaper than the “enterprise-grade” solution that now pales by comparison in terms of features and quality?

Your unseen competitor might be a private company funded by angel or venture capital– or even a bootstrapped entrepreneur.  It could be a non-profit or an open source provider.  Your competitor could be your customer deciding they can deliver the value they get from you themselves.  Your latent competition could be other necessities that are higher-priority for customers’ in these difficult economic times.  Executives and CI professionals need to expand their concept of “competition” if they are going to maintain or grow revenues and profits.

Jeff Jarvis has a new book out called What Would Google Do.  I have not had the pleasure of reading this book yet (it’s on my Audible wish list).  The premise is very intriguing: think of the Google model for disruption and innovation and ask yourself “If Google was going to enter my industry, what innovation would they use to disrupt the existing business model?”  

  • How would Google use IT to leverage customer activity such as search or service inquiries to actually generate value and create a self-reinforcing process?  
  • Is there a way Google could give away your product or service and generate revenue from advertising or some other revenue model?  
  • What sort of “ecosystem” would Google create by opening up parts of the business process to partners, customers and even potential competitors in a way that captures value of everyone’s efforts for Google and its customers?

These are just three examples off the top of my head.  As I look at any number of industries I see ways to “Google-fy” their business.  I also see the potential inside of companies to apply the same models to business processes to achieve greater efficiency and improve employees’ ability to do their jobs.

We’ve been able to become very complacent in recent decades, and there is a lot of waste and fat in our operations.  Customers have been accepting of higher-cost enterprise-grade solutions that today pale in comparison to low-cost “prosumer” offerings.  They’re going to demand pricing in line with their real needs or turn to disruptive providers.  Companies are struggling to cut costs and are laying off employees and will need to find ways to make their remaining employees sufficiently productive.  To do these things more companies should think like Google and other scary disruptive competitors and be ready to disrupt themselves.  

The economic environment is going to force a change in the DNA of how successful businesses think, and it’s not going to be an option of executives to wait out the recession for a return to the equilibrium with which we have become so comfortable.  These times call for bold, disruptive action if companies are going to come out the other side of the recession prepared for growth.

Duplicity: CI is Not this Sexy

So often the government intelligence types get the Hollywood treatment.  Now corporate espionage gets the treatment.  How do I know it’s corporate espionage and not competitive intelligence?  Because CI, while being something I find a lot of fun, is so not sexy.  A movie portraying Clive Owen using LinkedIn to identify primary research sources or Julie Roberts updating her corporate SWOT doesn’t sound like a blockbuster even to me.

It does look like a fun movie, though.  I’m sure it will find its way onto my Netflix que.

Anticipating Competitive Threats to Global Growth Strategies

Two weeks ago I had the great chance to attend and speak at the Frost & Sullivan Competitive Intelligence MindXChange.  The topic that I was asked to speak on was on ways that companies can anticipate and evaluate competitive threats to their global growth strategies.  I wanted to share the (slightly redacted) slides from that presentation.

My main themes can be summarized as follows:

  1. Managers must recognize other markets are distinct from their home market.
  2. Managers’ intuition is an inadequate mechanism to develop a global growth strategy.
  3. Focus on tight customer segmentation to identify opportunities that suit your established strengths.
  4. Evaluate your capabilities in the context of your target market, because strengths in your home market may be weaknesses in your target market.
  5. Incorporate local perspective into your CI and strategy practice.

I’m interested to know what readers think.