Scenario Analysis: Planning for Uncertain Futures

As a follow-up to my presentation on scenario analysis in Shanghai last November, tonight I delivered a modified presentation to the Washington, DC chapter of the Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals.

Scenario analysis is a method for creating strategic foresight that overcomes the shortcomings of traditional forecasting methods. It helps strategists and decision makers create a shared vocabulary and baseline for quality strategic planning.

I’ve developed some surprising insights using this method. In this presentation I used rural broadband as a use case for the method. Even in a quick one-man scenario analysis (which breaks one of my cardinal rules for scenario analysis) I’ve created an intriguing picture of four possible futures for the rural broadband market. To that point, if you happen to have expertise in this topic, I would like to hear your opinion. Let’s keep the strategic conversation going!

2 responses to “Scenario Analysis: Planning for Uncertain Futures

  1. Interesting post.

    Whitespaces has some very interesting potential. It could go either way. I think that’s the big wild card.

  2. Pingback: Analýza scénářů • Portál CI - Competitive Intelligence aneb Konkurenční zpravodajství

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