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One of the topics that intrigues me most about intelligence and the process of moving from evidence to data to insight to action is the role the cognitive dissonance plays in human decision-making.  A great presentation on that subject I heard recently is psychology researcher Philip Tetlock’s analysis of the performance of “foxes” and “hedgehogs” in making predictions about the future.  On the whole “foxes” are more reliable predictors than “hedgehogs.”

A hedgehog is a person that holds on to one idea or theory, and all events and predictions are related to that single salient belief.  A fox, by comparison, will pick and choose from a variety of theories or concepts based on what they observe, and will tend to be less partisan.  The dichotomy was best expressed by the Greek warrior poet Archilochus: “The fox knows many things; the hedgehog one great thing.”

That foxes are better predictors of future events according to Tetlock’s research is only one interesting aspect of the research.  Hedgehogs can get lucky from time to time and see very unlikely predicted events actually come to pass (such as those who had been predicting the demise of the Soviet Union since the 1950s finally getting their day in the early 1990s).

Also of great interest to me is the impact that communicating predictions have on decision-makers.  Foxes tend to cache their predictions with a lot of “howevers” and “ifs.”  Hedgehogs communicate rock-solid certainty.  To decision-makers seeking advice, the simplicity offered by the hedgehog is appealing, and the foxes, while perhaps being more realist in their presentation of multiple possibilities and scenarios, are frustrating because of their very lack of specificity.

Rather than a recommendation to stuff a team with foxes, Tetlock seems to be hinting that understanding the fox/hedgehog dynamic can be a basis for building teams of analysts that in aggregate provide truly actionable, reliable predictions.

I don’t think I can do the concept justice in the space of this short blog entry.  I recommend those interested in the concept give the podcast a listen.

The Long Now Blog » Blog Archive » Philip Tetlock – Ignore confident forecasters.