It’s a shame that my nose has been so completely placed on the grindstone the last few weeks. Some very cool, game changing developments have taken place in the wireless industry that I’ve wanted to blog about for some time.
Item the First: Amazon Kindle complete with Sprint EV-DO
The week of Thanksgiving Amazon entered the tumultuous space of e-book readers with the Kindle. A lot has been written about the status of e-books in general and the utility of the Kindle in specific. Some have caught on to what I think is one of the most revolutionary elements of the service: bundled Sprint high-speed EV-DO wireless data service.
The real revolution here is the wireless service bundled with another device and service and sold as an element completely independent from traditional mobile telephone or data services. Kindle points us to a day when standard devices will have on-board mobile data connectivity as a bundled service element. You won’t need to migrate your phone carrier from AT&T to T-Mobile in order to take advantage of the discrete connectivity provided by some new gadget or doo-dad. This is an example of the new business model.
Item the Second: Verizon Wireless says they will open their network to any device
In a completely unexpected move, Verizon Wireless announced that they will open up access to their wireless network to any device that is approved through a technical review process to ensure the integrity of the network. Once again the whole tech world asked “WTF?” all at once, but this time with a great sense of optimism. While a number of details need to be hammered out, this move does represent a truly game-changing development. Obviously the wireless industry is going to be turned upside-down. Other industries and business models are going to be revolutionized as wireless connectivity becomes ubiquitous (two industries that jump immediately to mind are consumer electronics and automotive).
Two major details that need to be hammered out are what the vetting process will look like and what pricing models will be made available. If the barriers to technical certification are set too high or take too long innovation will be greatly slowed. I fully expect other carriers to announce plans to open their own networks as well, and getting the best and most demanded gadgets on your network is going to be a dimension of competition among the wireless carriers.
The second issue to be addressed is pricing. Already AT&T have tried to make the case that their network is already open because any device that uses a SIM can be connected to their network. While there is an element of truth to this (one reason I’ve always preferred GSM to CDMA is the flexibility offered by a SIM card), the SIM card model is still based on pricing built around the concept of the mobile phone service.
The real revolution in the pricing of open wireless wide-area connectivity is going to be a move away from the traditional mobile phone pricing models. This is important because the truly game-changing element of open networks is creating opportunities for machine-to-machine connectivity. One the wireless network of the future a large percentage of the traffic will be computers talking to one another. Pricing models will need to be developed, either directly or indirectly, that support a mix of constant and variable connectivity requirements for a wide array of devices. The per-bit charges must be sufficiently low for device manufacturers and value-added services to be priced at levels that will deliver value for end customers.
We are on the verge of a very exciting time in the wireless space. Other carriers are going to follow VzW’s lead, and if Google wins any piece of the airwaves in the upcoming 700 MHz spectrum auction we can expect them to be a very aggressive and innovative competitor in this space. Within a couple of years we will come to take ubiquitous connectivity of certain devices for granted. Some product/service combinations we can easily foresee:
* Constant diagnostic data from cars and other durable goods
* Improved energy efficiency of home heating and cooling
* Real-time remote home security
* Internet audio and video in your car or through mobile devices
* Location-based services, such as luggage that is never lost
These are just some of the concepts off the top of my head. I have no doubt that I am only scratching the surface and not even tapping into the deep veins of opportunities that some very imaginative people will develop.
